Elvis's Music DVD sales: will The King be a dominant market force?

EIN has previously commented on Elvis' credibility as an artist in today's marketplace. Our series of articles resulted in an avalanche of mail.

Interestingly, views only marginally favored those negative of our comments.

One of the arguments used in the debate was that because BMG (RCA) has released so many Elvis greatest hits packages this dilutes sales of any new best of CD like Elvis 30 #1 Hits. EIN has always acknowledged there is merit in this argument.

The new millennium offers us a fresh perspective and a level playing field on which to assess how strong Elvis is as an artist in today's music buying world, and by implication suggest a measure of his credibility with mainstream audiences.

The fresh perspective can be found by examining sales of music DVDs, an area unsullied by constant repackaging of similar material.

For example, in Australia, Elvis enjoyed a five weeks run with the #1 selling music DVD, firstly The '68 Comeback Special was #1 for two weeks, only to be replaced by Aloha From Hawaii which occupied the top spot for three weeks. Both DVDs have so far sold around 20,000 copies in Australia (qualifying for Platinum when 15,000 units were shipped).

But how well will both DVDs do over time? Will they become multi-platinum releases, and what do we compare their sales to?

A cursory look at the ARIA Music DVD chart is instructive. Aloha From Hawaii was replaced at #1 by The Eagles with 'Hell Freezes Over', a DVD that has qualified at Platinum level a staggering fourteen times over (more than 210,000 units shipped - Platinum level requiring 15,000 shipped, but not necessarily sold, units). 'Hell Freezes Over' has so far enjoyed a run of 186 weeks on the chart.

Another chart success is from one of Elvis' original contemporaries - the Big O, Roy Orbison. His DVD 'Black & White Night' has been on the chart for 172 weeks and shipped more than 75,000 copies, qualifying as 5xPlatinum.

The Bee Gees with 'One Night Only' are 7xPlatinum after 175 weeks on the chart. 'Neil Diamond's Greatest Hits Live' is currently Px3 and a contemporary idol, Robbie Williams, is charting with several DVD releases, all of which have qualified for a minimum of 4xPlatinum.

The issue is: will either of The Comeback Special or Aloha From Hawaii remain on the charts for a weekly run in triple figures and Platinum status of 4 or higher?

If either (or both) can achieve such a milestone, this would signify that Elvis is a dominant force with the mainstream music buying audience. And as two of his best performances, artistically both DVD releases have considerable merit for a mainstream audience as against only the substantial, but smaller, Elvis fan base.

Unfortunately, at this point in time, sales of both The Comeback Special and Aloha From Hawaii are slowing (although the Fathers Day and Christmas sales periods will hopefully see spikes in sales for both releases).

In other countries, both releases have achieved very healthy sales and chart positions as the following table from EPE (dated 31 July 2004) shows. Whether or not the releases rise significantly above their impressive, but not mega impressive, accreditation levels, remains to be seen.

Globally, by the end of July BMG had shipped 217,000 units of Elvis: ’68 Comeback Special – Deluxe Edition DVD (3-disc set) and 177,000 units of Elvis, Aloha from Hawaii – Deluxe Editon DVD (2-disc set). (That’s a million discs!) According to BMG and EPE, both sets are enjoying outstanding sales, earning gold and platinum status and hitting high spots on the DVD sales charts.

EIN notes that the way the individual country statistics were presented by EPE arguably coloured the situation. By providing the success of each DVD in tabular form as above a better overall picture can be seen.

EIN posits that if neither release can generally surpass Px2 (particularly in key countries like the US, Britain and Japan), the buyers are likely to be predominately Elvis fans, not those in the mainstream audience that have contributed to Px4 and above sales for other artists, many of whom experienced their peak a decade or more ago.

If The Eagles, Roy Orbison and The Bee Gees can achieve Px4 plus status with their DVD releases why can't Elvis achieve the same level?

And if sales of Elvis' music DVDs fail to match sales of these other artists, EIN believes it will imply Elvis is not regarded as highly by the non-Elvis music buying public, ie. Elvis has a credibility problem with many people. And if this proves to be the case then a lot more needs to be done to promote Elvis' musical genius beyond the borders of the insular Elvis world.

EIN will watch developments on this issue with great interest.

EIN welcomes your views on this article